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tv   Options Action  CNBC  March 24, 2017 5:30pm-6:01pm EDT

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welcome back to our continuing coverage out of washington. the president is expected to go full force with tax reform.
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hi, elon. >> the disappointment today in washington over health care but trump said he is still determined to move forward over tax reform. >> probably going now for tax reform which we could have done earlier but this would have worked out better if we could have had some democrat support. remember this. we had no democrat support. so now we're going for tax reform which i've always liked. >> you heard the same message from house speaker paul ryan during his press conference. also, kevin brady released a statement saying he is not discourage asked moving full speed ahead on tax reform. the problem is that health care and tax reform are connected. ryan and brady have both plench that had tax reform will be revenue neutral. take a look the a these numbers under current law, the budget office estimates the government will bring in $41 trillion over
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the next decade. but repealing obamacare would have reduced revenues by a billion dollars. so he didn't to have raise new taxes to make up the difference. that's a freebie. that's a very different conversation than one happening around tax reform. the republican leadership would have to offset tax quuts tax increases somewhere else. it is much easier to do that. melissa, nobody likes to be the piggy bank. >> no one does. thank you. mike, do you think that tax reform will be that much harder and what does that do to your view of the markets is this. >> certainly on the individual, i think it makes it harder. on the corporate income tax side, there is a great deal to be done. looking at that $40 trillion figure, you're looking at $3 trillion. in same decade. if you repatriate capital, and a
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lower income tax rate, that by itself could be revenue neutral. if you're trying get corporate income tax equity, that, too, can be neutral. and that is one of the principle reasons the people have been buying equities on the expectation that it would have higher earnings. could you get that. the other thing is we'll have additional investment. and a lot of presumption will be based on that repatriation of capital so we'll get that revenue and increase growth. so there will be a little bit of political horseplay in there. maybe a little fuzzy math. >> on the repatriation, it assumes all the dollars, most dollars will come back even if there is a tax on it as opposed to -- >> at least the material percentage of them. if you, also, let's remember. the effect of corporate income tax rates substantially lower than the marginal rate of 39 and 35%. we have effective rates in the mid 20s. >> that's exactly what i'm
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talking about. the equity issue. all you need to do. if could you repatriate $1 trillion. >> this is really important, your term. we know that the president met with a lot of leaders and we know they've made a lot of announcements about what they plan to do under this new administration. as we get into q one earnings, i think all of a sudden you have a president who is a two time loser on two big initiatives. you're laughing at me but it's a fact. >> what are this he? health care. >> remember millions of people marching in the streets. >> high in the minds of corporate america when it comes to political earnings. >> you're a two big loser. now you have all these months that we hope to have this tax reform sometime before the august break. what will that do to corporate guidance? they're guiding. they're going on use their resources. >> they're still sitting around in roundtable discussions with president trump. when you call him a two-time
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loser. he's been in the office for a handful of days. a handful. >> they're coming in, the most controversial areas of his agenda by far. immigration was very controversial take. a look at the bush republicans. they were in favor of immigration reform. >> let's think about the process. they were bad process. led to a bad result why. do you think -- >> okay, fine, fine. health care, i want to talk about -- give me a chance. health care is on the sidelines. tax reform is in jeopardy. small caps get hit the hardest? >> in that scenario, yes. they have the most to gain and by definition, the most to lose. given what you just said. so let's talk about how you trade small caps. i want to say it for months. the iwm is the russell small cap index. that's the symbol. 130 has been the line in the
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sand. if you look earlier this week we got precariously close. in my opinion the rally is still intact. >> for more, let's bring in kim wallace at renaissance macro research. >> good to see you. what's your take on what's going on? >> a lot that's going on. i think going forward, you'll to have focus on both the substance and the politics of legislation. it is easy to say you move to tax reform and pass it by june. what is difficult is to identify what the ideas. are put them on paper. get support for it in committee and then pass it to the floor. the focus in the house thus far has been on border adjustment taxation. if you're going on get to tax reform in a hurry, you'll to have pivot from what has been the focus of the house, do you mean with another plan, and then bring people in to support it. they're not close to that yet. >> so you think basically, if the tax reform will have a shot,
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border adjustment has to go away of will. >> that's not what i think. that's what 17 republican senators have said. you can only lose two of them. by their definition, border adjustment will not be the plan for tax reform. there will have to be a meeting of the minds among white house and the leaders of the committees is that the party on the hill to decide what to do about taxes. i could revert to something that looks a lot like when they gave tax cuts. of course he had a surplus then. that will be part of conversation. tax reform is not going to be easy. it may happen this year. i doubt seriously it happens before the august break. >> how much damage to the cause of tax reform has been made because speaker ryan, he sort of fell on his own sword in his press conference today, being reremorseful, saying that it was not the best build-up they could have put forward. it was a weak bill.
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>> speaker ryan is best positioned of any speak per i can remember in modern time. he ran the budget committee, the ways and means committee. he understands taxes and health care. he tells you it will be difficult on get a tax bill but they'll try and prevail but it will be difficult. i would take his lead. my sense is that relations have been frayed this week. that happens when you have a big bill. it doesn't matter who it is. they can overcome it but they have to be willing to overcome it. and the talk of bipartisanship. >> great to speak with you. thank you for your analysis. washington macro. >> i think it is interesting. i totally heard the exact same language from ryan when he came out and made the point that it will be difficult. this makes it a lot more difficult. a couple days ago evgs talking about how it would be, not easy
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but we're confident we'll get health care passage. here's the issue. cuts versus reform. the market is pricing in reform. not full but we're not assuming it will be cuts. so therefore, i think there's a lot of risk to this. down side, i think we're little protected. people are waiting. they're going to give them a little pass on this. maybe a month or two. once they see cracks, they'll sell this market more aggressive. i think the upside is cracked as well. >> a very serious show. a lot of serious issues. i have a little game here. >> let's play. >> if president trump were a stock, does value go up or down and would you buy? >> oh, wow. >> i'll start off. the beauty of this, i always change around your games to my games. the beauty of this is that we don't have a dictator. so we can have -- >> really? >> if we did, we would have
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passed health care. >> we have a very -- >> you would have had every one out of the country. >> can i get an answer to my question, please? >> yes. >> is value enough today? >> stock went up because everybody knew this bill was dead in the water. >> it is not dead. i think it was his response to it that i think is the reason his stock went up. i haven't been a big trump supporter but i think his response was surprisingly good. >> look at trump as being the ceo of the country. did he make a splash today? in my opinion -- >> no responsibility. >> i agree with, it went up. he nipped it in the bud. tax reform has driven the market. >> from 2010 on, the market went up dramatically.
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now we have a fracture within the republican party. you don't like president trump. but what happens if they keep him stymied? >> wait, no way. >> you make good point. >> absolutely. >> you're saying if the white house, if republicans lose their majority, that's -- >> no, no, for right now, they have majority and they're stopping for all apparent purposes. there's a fracture within the republican party. they're not letting policies go through. >> one sided party has created a lame duck president nouflt it is putting everybody on hold that's nervous about agendas. >> but it is all predicated on tax reform getting passed. >> that sounds like a narrative. >> you totally ignored me except for mike. guy adami, please participate. >> i think it was a very good point. he appeared and sounded presidential. >> couldn't disagree more. >> okay.
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>> this would have been my answer. obviously he won't do this. >> he quit. >> he took no responsibility and he quit. >> okay. let guy in, please. >> i underestimated how complex this issue is. i misunderstood how arcane politics are. but we as a nation, we as an administration will move forward to do everything we can to push through tax reform. the market goes up. he won't do it but he should. >> okay. what's your answer? >> okay. on march 1, the stock market had a huge rally. the guy read off a teleprompter the night before for an hour and sounded presidential. we have a chafrt s&p 500. it just broke on tuesday, the down day. the 1% down day in over 100 trading days. look at the trend that it just broke there. i'm not saying we're crashing and going back to 2,100 or whatever. but i think a trend has been
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broken. i think you're wrong that he would bounce if he was a stock. and i think you sell rallies in this guy. >> the market was 13% off the election. gave back two. >> my point is it gave back two. the way the market reacted was shocking to me. it held. >> but goldman sachs is down on the year. they were going to benefit. keep an eye on this stock. that rolling -- >> a healthy market is a market can change leadership and still grind higher. >> the rolling rotation, you may see it come undone if nothing happens. >> you might. still ahead, wasn't all bad for the administration. president trump approving the key stone pipeline today. we'll tell hue are the winners and losers. ♪
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guyhey nicole, happening here? this is my new alert system for whenever anything happens in the market. kid's a natural. but thinkorswim already lets you create custom alerts for all the things that are important to you. shhh. alerts on anything at all? not only that, you can act on that opportunity with just one tap right from the alert. wow, i guess we don't need the kid anymore. custom alerts on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade.
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hey nicole. hey! i just wanted to thank your support team for walking me through my first options trade. we only do it for everyone gary. well, i feel pretty smart. well, we're all about educating people on options strategies. well, don't worry, i won't let this accomplishment go to my head.
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i'm still the same old gary. wait, you forgot your french dictionary. oh, mucho gracias. get help on options trading with thinkorswim, only at td ameritrade. our continuing coverage out of washington, let's get to the other big story of the day. president trump approving the keystone pipeline. eamon javers with that story. >> reporter: wasn't all health care today. the president had a couple of events on his schedule that he did seem a lot more enthusiastic than did he about the health care bill today including that keystone xl pipeline final approval. he gave it the official approval in the oval office surrounded by members of his administration. here's what he had to say. >> trans-canada will finally be allowed to complete this long overdue project with efficiency and with speed.
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we're working out the final details as we speak. it will be an incredible pipeline, the greatest technology known to man. >> reporter: he also had charter communications ceo tom rutledge in i know what the governor of texas talking about charter communications, bringing jobs back to the united states. this is a key campaign theme of this president. he is happy to meet with ceos and make these job announcements at the white house, as he did today. charter saying they're bringing them back. he said they'll be investoring $25 billion in hiring. this is a regifting of this announcement. in any case the white house feels by highlighting these moves by american companies, they sort of lead by example and put pressure on other company to make similar announcements ask bring other jobs back to the united states. they feel they're a virtuous
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cycle here. >> thank you. eamon javers at the white house. we have to talk about whether or not that does put the pressure on companies. we've seen it time and time again. they're able to go to the white house. have their picture in the oval office with the president. announce a hiring binge and it is all good. >> we've also heard many instances where they plan on doing something anyway and they are planning to you've it as a pr opportunity. and that's what they should do. it is in their interests and the shareholders' interests. as far as pipeline is concerned, that's important. this will be good for mid continent refiners. i think it is generally good for the energy industry that the president clearly supports it, whether you happen to support it or not. it will be good for that industry and oil services. >> i agree. look, i look at i and say the first part of question, face time with the president.
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is that helpful? we've seen with it a lot of industries. big cap pharma as well. i think the drug pricing issue is off the table for the most part because of what they've come together on. i think it is very important to be in lien with the president the company that are have proven to be winners. >> when you think about what is the biggest deal ever that's on the table that needs to get approved or wants to be approved, it is the at&t time warner deal. if that happens, who do you think will be doing a deal? charter also. in some ways, it makes a lot of the sense. they are fiduciaries to their shareholders. i can't really argue with that behavior. let's see it for what it is. >> a little good will here. >> considering it is something that you already announced. >> totally. all these ceos have to do this and they will continue to do it. whether or not his quote under
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quote stock goes down. but the pipeline deal for me. it is old, stale. they've had pipelines around it. i think the saudi aramco is bought only. decleaning oil prices for that entire space will be continuous process. >> his friendliness to the energy industry has put a lot of pressure on the long end of the curve. you look at crude prices. they did not change. since his election, they have plummeted at the long end. >> the largest producer going, i agree with you. on top of that, the longest producer going ipo. all of a sudden. unwrapping it. saying hey, share the wealth. that to me screams top of the market. there's no reason why they do it. >> does a pipeline hurt some of the rails? >> it might. especially names like kansas city. this has been in the rails for
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quite some time to mike's appointment. exxonmobil has not trade well since the first couple weeks of the trump administration. still ahead, with the health care bill derailed, they will give you their health care play book after this. [pony neighing] what? hey gary. oh. what's with the dog-sized horse? i'm crazy stressed trying to figure out this complex trade so i brought in my comfort pony, warren, to help me deal. isn't that right warren? well, you could get support from thinkorswim's in-app chat. it lets you chat and share your screen directly with a live person right from the app, so you don't need a comfort pony. oh, so what about my motivational meerkat? in-app chat on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade.
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♪ guyhey nicole, happening here? this is my new alert system for whenever anything happens in the market.
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kid's a natural. but thinkorswim already lets you create custom alerts for all the things that are important to you. shhh. alerts on anything at all? not only that, you can act on that opportunity with just one tap right from the alert. wow, i guess we don't need the kid anymore. custom alerts on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade. with the health care bill pulled, what can you buy right now? so kick it off. >> so although, when you look at hospitals. they probably get a little bit of a shortcut. but hmo is for the long haul. they're going toment on out of obamacare anyway. they're going to make life easier on themselves. also, if tax reform gets done, they have tail winds from that. so either way, longer term. hmos. >> i know dan will plain about
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biotech. the small to mid cam names. i think the drug pricing clernls come off the table within several months. you can buy them long term and win. >> it is weathighted toward theg caps. >> i like united health. this is a company that managed to double revenue since 2010. doubled e.p.s. would have done probably had we gotten some sort of health care reform bill passed. that's the call action that has been in the stock if you own it. >> i don't disagree but i will tell you, the xle. that's some large cap. down 3.5. >> rates went whir the expectations that fiscal stimulus and the economy would improve. if this health care plan puts a
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handicap on tax reform, the rates have been rallying. they'll go the other way. what does that mean? it should rally from here. >> up next, the final word from the traders for the week. hey nicole. hey! i just wanted to thank your support team for walking me through my first options trade. we only do it for everyone gary. well, i feel pretty smart. well, we're all about educating people on options strategies. well, don't worry, i won't let this accomplishment go to my head. i'm still the same old gary. wait, you forgot your french dictionary. oh, mucho gracias. get help on options trading with thinkorswim, only at td ameritrade.
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what?pony neighing] hey gary. oh. what's with the dog-sized horse? i'm crazy stressed trying to figure out this complex trade so i brought in my comfort pony, warren, to help me deal.
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isn't that right warren? well, you could get support from thinkorswim's in-app chat. it lets you chat and share your screen directly with a live person right from the app, so you don't need a comfort pony. oh, so what about my motivational meerkat? in-app chat on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade. time for the final call. >> i think the market moves much higher from here. >> i'll take some of my positions off. sell. bought them tuesday. taking them off on monday. >> going to sell 47 1/2. >> a little options action. >> two trades on twitter right now. one on tlt. one on spy. >> are they long? >> i'm with guy. >> no, you're not. >> he's with guy. >> i think the tlt might work on
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monday in a meaningful way. good show tonight. well done. >> it was. an expanded desk. thank you for being here on special coverage of the health care vote. we'll be back on monday. meantime, don't go my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to teach and educate. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. they pulled the bill. they pulled it, and contrary to what we heard would happen from so many commentators and money

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